Too many entrants in the credentialing and assessments space make the same mistake. They build for the test-taker: smoother UX, faster scoring, cheaper fees. And then they wonder why growth stalls.

The credentials or tests that dominate don’t win because of who takes them.

They win because of who accepts them.

The order matters.

Acceptance drives adoption, not the other way around.

Every market in credentials and assessments runs on this same asymmetry:

In other words, these markets aren’t driven by consumer demand; they are controlled by gatekeepers. And that’s where most entrants lose the plot: they chase convenience features for users instead of legitimacy signals for institutions.

The core truth: In credential markets, legitimacy is the real currency. And legitimacy lives with those who hold the power to say “we accept this.”

Over the past two decades advising assessment providers, universities, and workforce bodies, I’ve seen this mistake repeat itself. Product teams jump straight to the user experience while the institutions they depend on are still debating policy, data standards, and fairness frameworks. The result is predictable: strong technology, weak adoption.

For decades, TOEFL was the default assessment that every international applicant to the U.S. took, because every major U.S. university required it. It was the gold standard because it was the only standard.

Then IELTS broke the monopoly, by getting U.S. institutions to accept it. IELTS went directly to admissions offices. The pitch to institutions wasn’t about UX or design; it was about reliability, scoring validity, and comparability. The pitch to students wasn’t “this is easier” or “more convenient” it was “this is trusted by institutions.”

It started by understanding what admissions officers actually valued: predictable scoring, transparent data pipelines, and an assurance that the test wouldn’t expose them to fraud or fairness complaints. In institutional markets, the perceived risk of acceptance often outweighs the potential benefit of innovation. That’s the calculus many entrants overlook.

IELTS’s objective was to break TOEFL’s monopoly in the U.S. (IELTS was already the default assessment in the U.K. and Commonwealth countries). Once a few top schools announced they would accept it, everyone else followed. The signal was: if elite universities say IELTS is legitimate, other schools could safely follow suit.

By the time TOEFL executives noticed, the test-taker market had already moved. Widely accepted in the U.K. and now in the U.S. as well, IELTS rapidly gained market share amongst prospective students who wanted to keep their country of destination options open.

IELTS cracked TOEFL’s monopoly, and the Duolingo English Test (DET) blew the door off its hinges.

When it launched, DET looked like a toy: an app-based test from a language-learning company best known for its cartoon owl. Executives within IELTS and TOEFL dismissed it as unserious; unworthy of being a competitor. But Duolingo followed the same playbook IELTS had proven: start with institutional acceptance.

Before the pandemic, DET had a few hundred universities on its list. Then COVID-19 shut down testing centers worldwide, and Duolingo moved fast. Within months, it secured approvals from elite universities—Yale, Columbia, Duke, MIT. Once those names appeared on the list, thousands of others followed. DET didn’t sell convenience to students; it sold continuity to institutions.

That cascade didn’t happen by chance and indeed it’s a textbook strategy many of our clients pursue: get a handful of prestige institutions to make the first move. Duolingo managed to execute the strategy faster than its competitors expected.

While TOEFL and IELTS scrambled to launch at-home versions, Duolingo was already digital, verified, and ready to scale. It offered what admissions officers needed most in that moment: a defensible, remote-administered test.

By 2025, more than 6,000 programs accepted DET—up from fewer than 100 in 2016. The test’s lower cost, accessibility, and turnaround time were differentiators, but they only mattered after acceptance was secured. No student would pay even $59 for a test that no university would recognize. Legitimacy came first; affordability simply accelerated adoption.

This tale of two acts is a story about legitimacy in gatekeeper-driven markets. The winner isn’t the test that’s better to take. It’s the one that’s safe to accept.

When institutions updated their policies, student preference realigned instantly. That’s why IELTS’ expansion was so efficient: every new university on the list was a multiplier, not a single new customer. And Duolingo didn’t just digitize English language testing. It redefined the boundary between consumer tech and institutional trust. And once again, legitimacy—not innovation—was the real engine of growth.

The lesson: In credential and assessment markets, adoption is an outcome, not a strategy. You don’t win the learner until you’ve won a place on the list.

It turned out the English testing market wasn’t a consumer business after all. It only looked like one, because of who pays the test fees.

In reality, every credential or test operates on two sides of a single engine: one side sells to individuals, the other sells to institutions. The balance between them determines whether a product grows, or stalls.

The order matters.

Legitimacy must come before volume can come.

Once the institutional side says yes, the consumer side is in play.

A test-taker doesn’t ask, “Which experience do I prefer?” They ask, “Which one gets me accepted?” That’s why the institutional side is where strategy happens and the consumer side is where execution follows.

Most startups and even legacy firms launching new tests or credentials confuse the two. They chase user metrics before they’ve earned institutional legitimacy, mistaking temporary demand for durable adoption. But until gatekeepers accept the product, no amount of UX optimization or price reduction creates a real market.

The right sequence is diagnostic. Emerging Strategy’s research often begins on the institutional side: understanding how decision-makers define trust, what data or validation frameworks they require, and how competing options are perceived internally. Only after that landscape is mapped does it make sense to study consumer willingness to pay or brand preference. Otherwise, you’re optimizing demand that can’t convert.

Once legitimacy is secured, everything else—volume, loyalty, even pricing power—flows downstream.

The same asymmetry that defines student testing plays out across the professional world. Credentials rise or fall not on learner enthusiasm, but on employer recognition.

For years, HRCI’s PHR and SPHR were the default in HR. Then SHRM entered in 2015 and flipped the market—not only through marketing to HR professionals, but by lobbying employers. When Fortune 500 firms updated job descriptions to “SHRM-CP or SHRM-SCP preferred,” the talent pool followed. Legitimacy shifted at the top, and professionals adjusted instantly.

Salesforce’s Trailhead program wasn’t built for individual learners; it was designed for partners and employers who needed certified talent. Google took the same approach with its Career Certificates, securing pledge partnerships with 150+ employers before marketing to learners. “Accepted by employers” was the strategy.

Cloud and IT certifications succeeded for the same reason IELTS did: they became the safe default for hiring managers. Once job postings specified those credentials, the learner market scaled itself.

None of these are consumer acquisition stories. They are stories of institutional alignment where credibility precedes adoption and employers act as the regulators of legitimacy. Once gatekeepers endorse the credential, everyone downstream falls in line.

In every one of these cases, the breakthrough wasn’t a better credential, it was a better understanding of employers’ incentives. Employers don’t just want proof of skill; they want liability protection, comparability, and signals that simplify screening.

Not every credential market works the same way. The difference lies in who decides what “counts.” In some markets, legitimacy flows downward from institutions. In others, it can bubble upward from outcomes.

There are only two models that matter:

This is the dominant pattern, and the one most new entrants underestimate. In gatekeeper-driven markets, institutions or employers hold the power to define value. Universities decide which language tests count. Regulators approve which licenses qualify. Corporations specify which certifications show up in job postings.

Here, demand isn’t built through advertising or UX—it’s earned through recognition.

This model rewards credibility over creativity. You can’t “growth-hack” your way past a gatekeeper.

In a smaller set of markets, legitimacy can emerge from outcomes rather than permissions. When no central authority defines value, and results are visible to the market, individual success stories can create their own proof of legitimacy.

Think of coding bootcamps, design portfolio platforms, or online marketplaces for freelancers. When graduates consistently land jobs or contracts, employers adjust their trust accordingly.

Outcome-led models work only when gatekeepers are weak or fragmented. When power is centralized, the legitimacy flow reverses and institutional recognition becomes nonnegotiable.

If legitimacy is centralized, start B2B.

If it can be demonstrated, start with outcomes.

Every credential business fails or scales based on getting that sequence right.

The pattern is unmistakable. Across education, workforce development, and professional certification, the products that win aren’t the ones students love. They’re the ones institutions trust.

Adoption follows legitimacy. Every time.

The companies that chase test-takers, optimizing price, experience, and marketing—may win early traction, but they rarely cross into durable growth. The ones that build legitimacy first, by winning acceptance among universities, employers, or regulators, create something much harder to dislodge: a rule of the market.

That acceptance doesn’t happen by luck. It happens when providers start by diagnosing institutional pain before touching the consumer experience.

The lesson for new entrants is simple but counterintuitive: Stop building for the learner first. Build for the institution that determines whether that learning means anything to them. The products that remember that sequence set the standard everyone else has to meet.

The pattern is a familiar one across sectors: once you know who the real customer is, growth stops being a mystery and becomes a sequence.

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